PRONÓSTICOS DEL VOLUMEN DE VENTA DE MANGO MEDIANTE MÉTODOS UNIVARIADOS EN SERIES TEMPORALES / MANGO SALES VOLUME FORECAST BY USING UNIVARIATE METHODS IN TIME SERIES
Palabras clave:
mango como fruta fresca, medidas de error, modelos univariados, pronósticos de ventas, series temporalesResumen
La elaboración de pronósticos a menudo se puede ver afectada por la insuficiencia o escasez de información para construir modelos explicativos y la carencia de observaciones para construir modelos de pronóstico con datos de frecuencia anual. Por ello, esta investigación emplea métodos univariados para la elaboración de pronósticos ante la escasez de información y usa pronósticos de frecuencia mensual para ofrecer soluciones a las problemáticas inicialmente planteadas. En este sentido, se utilizaron ocho métodos de pronóstico univariados, donde, debido a las características de las ventas, dos de ellos fueron métodos especializados para pronosticar en presencia de demanda intermitente. Además, se propuso una medida de evaluación de pronósticos para el caso en que se desee obtener la importancia combinada de los pronósticos a más de un nivel de agregación. Los modelos ganadores fueron un Alisamiento Exponencial con componente de error multiplicativa, tendencia aditiva y estacionalidad aditiva y un Alisamiento Exponencial con componente de error multiplicativa, tendencia aditiva-amortiguada y estacionalidad aditiva, cuyos valores para la medida de evaluación propuesta fueron de 11464.41 y 16883.80 respectivamente y las sumas de los pronósticos de la etapa esperada de venta solo se desviaron en un 3.49 % y un 1.19 % respectivamente.Citas
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